Spain vs Belgium Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — FIFA World Cup 2026 10 Jul 2026

Spain welcome Belgium in this FIFA World Cup 2026 fixture with both sides looking to pick up vital points. With the season well underway, every result carries increased significance.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.6, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Spain’s form coming into this match has been blistering, averaging 2.9 points per game from their last five fixtures.

Belgium arrive in fine fettle, averaging 2.0 points per game from their last five. On the road they’ve been productive, scoring 15 in their last five while keeping things tight with just 4 conceded.

The historical record between Spain and Belgium will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

This is about as tight as it gets in our predictions. Spain are given a 46% chance, Belgium 25%, and the draw 28%. When the probabilities are this close, it’s a game that could go any way, and picking a winner with confidence is virtually impossible.

The expected goals model projects Spain at 1.8 xG and Belgium at 0.8 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-0 (12% probability), followed by 2-0 (11%).