VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Bundesliga 26 Apr 2026

VfB Stuttgart sit 4th, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Werder Bremen in 15th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 2.3 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.9 for Werder Bremen, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

VfB Stuttgart’s form coming into this match has been inconsistent, averaging 1.5 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 12 in their last five matches — though 8 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Werder Bremen arrive averaging 1.3 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 8 conceded in five games, a vulnerability VfB Stuttgart will look to exploit.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. VfB Stuttgart’s Elo rating (1572) is 166 points higher than Werder Bremen’s (1406), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives VfB Stuttgart the edge at 62%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Werder Bremen carry a 15% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 21%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects VfB Stuttgart at 2.3 xG and Werder Bremen at 0.9 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 2-0 (10% probability), followed by 2-1 (9%).