Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Ligue 1 25 Apr 2026

Toulouse (11th) welcome Monaco (7th) in a Ligue 1 fixture where both sides will be eager to climb the table. The hosts have 37 points on the board, while Monaco sit on 50 — neither can afford to let standards slip with the business end of the season approaching.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.1 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.8 for Monaco, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Toulouse’s form coming into this match has been excellent, averaging 0.8 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 8 in their last five matches — though 13 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

Monaco arrive averaging 1.7 points per game from their last five. However, their defensive record is a concern — 8 conceded in five games, a vulnerability Toulouse will look to exploit.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Monaco’s Elo rating (1548) is 100 points higher than Toulouse’s (1448), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Toulouse and Monaco will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Monaco the edge at 54%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Toulouse carry a 20% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 25%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Toulouse at 1.1 xG and Monaco at 1.8 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 1-2 (9%).