Udinese vs Cremonese Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Serie A 17 May 2026

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Cremonese, who sit 18th and in the relegation battle. Every point is precious at this stage of the season, and a defeat here could leave them staring at the very real prospect of the drop. Udinese arrive knowing they can pile on the misery or hand a lifeline to their opponents.

Don’t expect a goal-fest here. With a combined projected xG of 2.7, this has the makings of a cagey, tactical affair where defensive discipline could prove the difference.

Udinese’s form coming into this match has been excellent, averaging 2.1 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve been particularly impressive at both ends, scoring 10 goals and conceding just 4 in their last five.

Cremonese arrive hoping to rediscover their best form, averaging 1.0 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 4 and conceded 7 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Udinese’s Elo rating (1497) is 149 points higher than Cremonese’s (1348), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Udinese and Cremonese will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Udinese the edge at 60%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Cremonese carry a 16% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 22%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Udinese at 1.8 xG and Cremonese at 0.9 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-0 (12% probability), followed by 2-0 (11%).