Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — Bundesliga 16 May 2026

Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd, inside the Champions League places, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Werder Bremen in 15th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.0 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.8 for Borussia Dortmund, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Werder Bremen’s form coming into this match has been solid, averaging 0.6 points per game from their last five fixtures. They’ve scored 6 and conceded 9 in their last five outings.

Borussia Dortmund arrive averaging 1.5 points per game from their last five. They’ve scored 8 and conceded 6 in their last five outings.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. Borussia Dortmund’s Elo rating (1599) is 213 points higher than Werder Bremen’s (1386), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our model gives Borussia Dortmund the edge at 60%, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Werder Bremen carry a 15% chance of springing a surprise, and with the draw at 23%, any of the three outcomes is a realistic possibility. The bookmakers tell a similar story — this is a match where the margins are fine.

The expected goals model projects Werder Bremen at 1.0 xG and Borussia Dortmund at 1.8 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-1 (11% probability), followed by 0-1 (10%).