1X2 / Match Result
Definition
The most common football betting market. You predict one of three outcomes: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). The bet settles at full-time using the 90-minute result only — extra time and penalties do not count.
Example
Arsenal vs Liverpool — A bookmaker prices Arsenal (Home) at 2.40, Draw at 3.20, and Liverpool (Away) at 3.00. Our proprietary ML model estimates Arsenal's win probability at 52%, Draw at 25%, Away at 23%.
The implied probability from 2.40 is 41.7%, giving Arsenal a +10.3% edge. This is a value bet in the Home (1) selection.
How CalibrSports Predicts This
Our ML ensemble generates calibrated Home, Draw, and Away probabilities for every fixture across 10 leagues. We compare these to bookmaker-implied probabilities and flag bets where our edge exceeds per-league thresholds. The AI advisor then reviews each flagged bet before it is published.
Key Facts
Outcomes
3 (Home / Draw / Away)
Settles at
Full-time (90 min)
Leagues covered
10
Best edge opportunity
Home win markets
Related Terms
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the 1X2 market include extra time?
No. The 1X2 market always settles on the 90-minute result. If a match goes to extra time in a cup competition, the bookmaker's result is determined at the end of normal time.
Why are draw bets harder to predict?
Draws are the rarest outcome in any specific matchup and require both teams to be closely matched in quality and form. Machine learning models often underestimate draw probabilities, which is why we track draw edges separately.
How does CalibrSports decide the minimum edge for a 1X2 bet?
We use per-league calibration. Tighter, more efficient leagues like the EPL require a larger edge before we flag a bet, while less-covered leagues may fire at a lower threshold.