Double Chance
Definition
A market that lets you cover two of the three possible 1X2 outcomes in a single bet. The three double chance combinations are: Home or Draw (1X), Away or Draw (X2), and Home or Away (12). Because you cover two outcomes, odds are lower than single 1X2 bets but the probability of winning is higher.
Example
Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla — Our model gives Atletico a 44% win probability and Draw 29%, Away 27%. No single outcome clears our minimum edge threshold.
But the 1X (Home or Draw) combination carries a combined probability of 73%, while the bookmaker prices it at 1.40 (implied 71.4%). That 1.6% edge on a high-probability outcome still clears our threshold for this market.
How CalibrSports Predicts This
We use Double Chance selectively when our model assigns high combined probability to two outcomes but cannot confidently differentiate between them. We require the combined probability to exceed 80% and the edge over the implied probability to be positive after adjusting for the lower odds.
Key Facts
Combinations
1X, X2, 12
Outcomes covered
2 of 3
Minimum combined prob
> 80%
Typical odds range
1.20 – 1.70
Related Terms
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Double Chance the same as two separate 1X2 bets?
Functionally similar, but a single Double Chance bet is settled on one ticket. The odds are slightly better than combining two 1X2 bets because the bookmaker builds a smaller margin into the combined price.
When does the 12 (Home or Away) Double Chance make sense?
When both teams are strong attacking sides and a draw is very unlikely. You sacrifice odds but remove the draw risk entirely. This is sometimes called a 'both teams to win' bet informally.