Deportivo Alavés vs FC Barcelona Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips — La Liga 13 May 2026

FC Barcelona sit 1st, top of the table, and will view this as an opportunity to consolidate their position. For Deportivo Alavés in 18th, this is a chance to make a statement against one of the league’s top sides — the kind of result that can shift momentum for the rest of the campaign.

The numbers point towards an entertaining game. Our model projects 1.0 expected goals for Deportivo Alavés and 2.2 for FC Barcelona, suggesting we could see goals at both ends. If both sides play to their offensive strengths, the neutral will be in for a treat.

Deportivo Alavés’s form coming into this match has been poor, averaging 1.0 points per game from their last five fixtures. The goals have been flowing — 9 in their last five matches — though 11 conceded does suggest some vulnerabilities at the back.

FC Barcelona arrive in fine fettle, averaging 3.0 points per game from their last five. On the road they’ve been productive, scoring 11 in their last five while keeping things tight with just 2 conceded.

The quality gap between these sides is notable. FC Barcelona’s Elo rating (1739) is 288 points higher than Deportivo Alavés’s (1450), suggesting a meaningful difference in overall squad strength and performance level.

The historical record between Deportivo Alavés and FC Barcelona will be on the minds of both managers as they plot their approach. Every encounter adds another chapter to the rivalry, and this one carries its own unique set of circumstances and pressures.

Our AI model makes FC Barcelona clear favourites here, giving them a 68% chance of winning. That leaves Deportivo Alavés with just a 11% probability of pulling off a result, while the draw sits at 20%. This is one of the more lopsided predictions of the matchday — the data sees a clear gap between these two sides.

The expected goals model projects Deportivo Alavés at 1.0 xG and FC Barcelona at 2.2 xG. The most likely scoreline according to our Poisson model is 1-2 (9% probability), followed by 0-2 (9%).