Powered by CalibrSports ML · Pre-tournament analysis
Real Madrid
One of the greatest midfielders of all time — still capable of controlling World Cup matches at the highest level
Manchester City
Premier League proven box-to-box midfielder who complements Modrić perfectly with energy and pressing
Manchester City
One of the world's best defenders at 22 — dominant, composed, and dangerous going forward
26-player squad · provisional, via SportMonks · finalized closer to kickoff
Manager
Zlatko Dalić
Formation
4-3-3
Technically gifted and tactically astute with Modrić conducting the tempo from midfield, Kovačić providing relentless energy, and Gvardiol defending and launching attacks from left-back with elite composure.
With Panama and Ghana as manageable opponents and England as the clear group leaders, Croatia should secure second place; their tournament experience and quality make this a strong value bet.
Croatia have reached the semi-finals or better in three of the last four World Cups — consistently over-performing their ranking; backing them to at least reach the quarters is historically validated.
Even at his age Modrić creates more chances per game than almost any other player; in matches against Panama and Ghana his assist total will be a strong market.
Will Croatia qualify from the group stage?
CalibrSports ML gives Croatia a 80% probability of advancing from Group L, based on squad strength and opponent ratings.
What are Croatia's chances of winning WC 2026?
Our model gives Croatia a 1% chance of winning the World Cup 2026.
Who is Croatia's best player at WC 2026?
Luka Modrić (CM at Real Madrid) — One of the greatest midfielders of all time — still capable of controlling World Cup matches at the highest level
Croatia continue to punch above their weight at every World Cup under Dalić. With 3rd in 2022 and finalists in 2018, this experienced and technically elite squad can once again challenge for the latter rounds. Gvardiol and Kovačić provide the modern engine while Modrić provides the genius. CalibrSports gives Croatia an 80% chance of advancing from Group L.