CalibrSports Poisson goal-share model ranks every player by their probability of finishing as the tournament's top scorer. Expected goals are computed from team lambdas, individual goal-share rates, and each player's projected tournament path.
Last updated: 15 Jul 2026, 08:01
Top 20 of 1194 players by P(Golden Boot). All probabilities from the CalibrSports goal-share prediction model.
Updated
Kylian Mbappรฉ leads the CalibrSports Golden Boot projection with 3.31 expected tournament goals and a 19.8% probability of winning the Golden Boot.
| # | Player | Pos | P(Win) | xGoals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kylian MbappรฉTop pick France | FWD | 19.8% | 3.31 | France |
| 2 | Memphis DepayTop pick Netherlands | FWD | 9.3% | 2.50 | Netherlands |
| 3 | Harry KaneTop pick England | FWD | 5.8% | 2.19 | England |
| 4 | Romelu Lukaku Belgium | FWD | 4.0% | 1.98 | Belgium |
| 5 | Jean-Philippe Mateta France | FWD | 3.3% | 1.85 | France |
| 6 | Donyell Malen Netherlands | FWD | 3.1% | 1.78 | Netherlands |
| 7 | รlvaro Morata Spain | FWD | 2.9% | 1.79 | Spain |
| 8 | Lionel Messi Argentina | FWD | 2.5% | 1.70 | Argentina |
| 9 | Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal | FWD | 2.3% | 1.61 | Portugal |
| 10 | Mikel Oyarzabal Spain | FWD | 2.1% | 1.61 | Spain |
| 11 | Serge Gnabry Germany | MID | 1.9% | 1.55 | Germany |
| 12 | Breel Embolo Switzerland | FWD | 1.7% | 1.52 | Switzerland |
| 13 | Henry Martin Mexico | FWD | 1.7% | 1.56 | Mexico |
| 14 | Niclas Fรผllkrug Germany | FWD | 1.5% | 1.44 | Germany |
| 15 | Ferran Torres Spain | FWD | 1.4% | 1.38 | Spain |
| 16 | Johan Manzambi Switzerland | FWD | 1.3% | 1.45 | Switzerland |
| 17 | Bukayo Saka England | FWD | 1.3% | 1.38 | England |
| 18 | Erling Haaland Norway | FWD | 1.2% | 1.41 | Norway |
| 19 | Richarlison Brazil | FWD | 1.2% | 1.34 | Brazil |
| 20 | Mikel Merino Spain | MID | 1.2% | 1.35 | Spain |
CalibrSports AI ยท Goal-share prediction model ยท P(Golden Boot) from tens of thousands of simulations ยท Updated 15 Jul 2026, 08:01