CalibrSports model-derived outright probabilities for all 48 nations at FIFA World Cup 2026. Calculated using our tournament simulation model across tens of thousands of bracket scenarios with confederation strength adjustments. Updated daily once the tournament begins.
Last updated: 15 Jul 2026, 08:00
Top 20 of 48 nations by champion probability. Click any team for a full AI analysis including group opponents, key players, and betting angles.
Updated
As of 15 Jul 2026, 08:00, CalibrSports' model makes Argentina (20.0%), France (19.7%), and Brazil (10.8%) the most likely World Cup 2026 winners.
| # | Team | Champion | Final | SF | QF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 20.0% | 30.1% | 53.4% | 64.5% |
| 2 | France | 19.7% | 29.3% | 45.0% | 61.8% |
| 3 | Brazil | 10.8% | 23.5% | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 4 | Spain | 10.1% | 21.4% | 38.6% | 54.4% |
| 5 | Germany | 8.6% | 21.4% | 40.2% | 68.7% |
| 6 | Netherlands | 8.6% | 15.1% | 26.3% | 40.5% |
| 7 | England | 8.0% | 15.8% | 30.1% | 64.9% |
| 8 | Belgium | 5.5% | 15.4% | 34.4% | 75.4% |
| 9 | Croatia | 2.5% | 6.7% | 16.4% | 41.3% |
| 10 | Switzerland | 2.3% | 5.9% | 17.3% | 29.5% |
| 11 | Portugal | 1.4% | 4.5% | 14.6% | 42.1% |
| 12 | Colombia | 1.2% | 3.8% | 13.0% | 38.9% |
| 13 | Ecuador | 0.8% | 3.3% | 10.0% | 31.8% |
| 14 | Uruguay | 0.3% | 1.4% | 5.7% | 12.7% |
| 15 | Mexico | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.8% | 17.4% |
| 16 | Paraguay | 0.1% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 16.6% |
| 17 | Tรผrkiye | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 14.4% |
| 18 | Norway | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 8.4% |
| 19 | Sweden | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 4.0% |
| 20 | Morocco | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 4.5% |
CalibrSports AI ยท Tournament simulation model ยท Full-bracket scenarios ยท Updated 15 Jul 2026, 08:00
View groups โThe outright board is driven by our model simulating the full tournament tens of thousands of times. Each team is assigned a pre-tournament strength rating calibrated from bookmaker consensus odds (May 2026) and re-anchored for confederation strength โ correcting for the systematic inflation that occurs when Elo ratings are built within regional qualifying silos (CONMEBOL vs UEFA vs AFC etc.).
At each knockout matchup, the simulation draws match outcomes from the Poisson probability distribution parameterised by both teams' expected goals lambdas. Extra time and penalty shootout probabilities are modelled for all tied knockout matches. Champion, Final, Semi-Final, Quarter-Final and Round of 16 probabilities are the empirical frequency of each team reaching that stage across all simulations.
Probabilities are updated after every completed group-stage matchday as actual results update each team's conditional bracket path. Pre-tournament projections appear until the group stage begins on June 11, 2026.