Win to Nil
Definition
A market that combines a team winning the match with keeping a clean sheet. Win to Nil (also called Clean Sheet Win) wins only if the selected team wins the match without conceding a single goal. A win with goals conceded loses the bet.
Example
Paris Saint-Germain vs Strasbourg — PSG at home average under 0.6 expected goals conceded per match. Our model estimates PSG win probability at 74% and their clean sheet probability at 58%. The combined probability of Win to Nil for PSG is approximately 43%.
If the bookmaker offers PSG Win to Nil at 2.50 (implied 40%), the +3% edge clears our minimum threshold for this market.
How CalibrSports Predicts This
Win to Nil is calculated from our goals model's clean sheet probability combined with the team's win probability. We activate this market only for strong home favourites where the model's clean sheet probability is above a calibrated threshold. It is used sparingly given its sensitivity to single conceded goals.
Key Facts
Requirements
Win + clean sheet
Loses if
Opponent scores any goal
Typical odds range
1.80 – 4.00
Best scenario
Strong home favourite vs weak attack
Related Terms
Frequently Asked Questions
Does an own goal count against Win to Nil?
Yes. An own goal credited to the opposing team ends the Win to Nil bet. The requirement is that the opponent's score remains 0.
How is Win to Nil different from Double Chance 1X?
They are completely different markets. Double Chance 1X covers Home win or Draw. Win to Nil requires a Home win with a clean sheet — it is more restrictive but offers higher odds.